Only 3 teams remain here, after having 5 members a few years ago. So this isn't much of a review-except for Notre Dame. But this does feature my best rivalry: Army vs Navy which is always a special game for many reasons. Let's roll!
Army-When rival Navy hired Paul Johnson they rose high in the ranks of college football with their triple option offense and found ways to achieve success on the field, leading to bowl berths. Army hopes they have the same formula for success by hiring Cal-Poly HC Rich Ellerson. Army was at their best when they used this type of offense, but the good news is he should have the line to pull it off. The RB's are a bit small (5'8 190 lb average) but Sr FB Bryson Carl (6'0 245) should grind out the short yards quite well. The defense which was an improving unit last year will carry the Black Knights this year. Army will be back to the competitive level this year, since a lot of tools are in place to make a run, but no bowl game this year.
2. Navy-Ken Niumatalolo enters his 2nd year, and looks to continue the success that Paul Johnson brought here. He kept the offense the same, but this year has to break in 7 new starters, but since this is a system offense they should do fine. The defense is the strength of this team, and with 7 men back from last year should be the backbone of the Midshipmen. Circle the game Nov 7 at Notre Dame, as this is the big National stage in midseason. If the Midshipmen keep it close, or pull the upset, it will be a signature win for Niumatalolo and will give Navy 2 wins in the last 3 over the Irish. The big game, possibly for the Commander in Chief trophy will be Dec 12 when they play Army.
1. Notre Dame-This is make or break for Charlie Weiss. He kept his job last season (surprisingly) after losing to Syracuse which was a sorry excuse for a football team last year. But there is good news, Weiss is calling the plays as he did the 1st 3 years at ND, and it seems that Jon Tenuda will handle calling the Defense's signals (but still will share DC duties with Corwin Brown). This isn't the ND of old, when their O-line blasted your DL off the line of scrimmage, but now a finesse offense. The Irish snapped their losing streak in Bowl games last season, but fans and alumni want more results. Jimmy Clausen should be ready to put up Brady Quinn numbers, and RB Armando Allen, Jr should keep defenses honest. On defense, the secondary may be their best asset, as the front 7 has depth, but not a lot of starting experience. The schedule has the usual winnable games (Nevada, Army, Navy) and the game which they will get plastered, USC, but playing them in October may help. The Trojans typically lose a game in October they shouldn't and it could happen in South Bend. I predict a 9-3 record with a New Years Day bowl game for the Irish. But if they struggle this year, look for Weiss to be bought out, and a big name new hire to replace him.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
2009 Sun Belt Conference Preview
This is only the 9th season this conference has been playing football, believe it or not. Most of the members played in I-AA and moved up to be I-A. The good news is that they will be a little more visible on the national scene signing a TV deal with ESPN. The real money maker for the conference members is being placed on schedules of major programs like LSU, Florida, Ohio St, etc.
2009 Prediction
9. Western Kentucky-The Hilltoppers maybe shouldn't have moved up. They went 2-10 last year, and return most of their players. The problem is breaking in a new QB, which if they didn't have to would mean they might push for 4 or 5 wins. WHile they may be a sleeping giant, they aren't world beaters yet. Let's see how they are in 2 years.
8. Florida International-The Panthers may be most remembered for an on field fight with Miami a few years ago, but Mario Cristobal wants to change that. For a team that finished 5-7 last year, that is a feat since they were winless a couple of years ago. This might be the best offense, but a new OC (Bill Legg from Purdue) and a handful of defensive starters returning make this a rebuilding year for the Golden Panthers
7. North Texas-Todd Dodge was the most accomplished High School coach in the state of Texas, which got him this job. But he hasn't done bad. The talent is starting to come in, and they are closer to competing with not only conference teams, but also some of the BCS schools. The defense will carry the load this year, but should improve from the 1-11 season of a year ago.
6. Middle Tennessee-The Blue Raiders will host an SEC team in Miss St this season, a first for them. WIth 10 starters on offense returning this could be a great year on that side ofthe ball, but 6 return on defense meaning a possible repeat of 5-7, but I predict 6-6. WIth imporved recruiting, and more potential TV time, this could be a program that leaps forward in 2010.
5. UL-Lafayette-The Ragin Cajuns have lost their top QB, RB and WR from last years team. So why this high? The top teams in this conference come to Lafayette. ULL is a great home team (Upset Texas A&M here a while back), and the fan support is back. Ricky Bustle has done a great job here, but this might be his toughest one yet. He has a strong defense, and RB depth which will help his team grind out close games in 2009.
4. UL-Monroe-Charlie Weatherbie made changes in his staff: Co-OC's in Vance Vince and his son Jonas Weatherbie. The new DC is Troy Reffett from UTEP. The good news-17 returning starters, 9 on defense. The top of the schedule is tough, Texas in Week 1 and Arizona St in week 3. But if they go 2-2 to start the season, this could be the surprise champ of this league. Keep an eye on Oct 24 when they play Kentucky which could be an upset.
3. Florida Atlantic-Howard Schnellenberger (Yes the man who built Miami, Fl and Louisville) is still coaching, and maybe doing his best work. The reason why they won't win the SB this year is defense-3 starters return. The offense lead by a healthy Rusty Smith at QB should roll some big numbers, but he hasn't played a full season due to injuries. If he stays healthy, look for his draft stock to rise, and FAU to go Bowling again.
2. Troy-The Trojans of the South have a lot in common with their namesakes on the West Coast-an exciting offense and a hard hitting defense. That is just about it, but this team did outgain Ohio St and had LSU on the ropes 31-3 last season. I would have them winning this league, but the defense will have a lot of questions with 5 returning starters. Their only big NC game is Florida on Sept 12, I don't count Bowling Green on Sept 3 as a major opponent (for Troy). With a very large and talented recruiting class, Troy could still win, but won't get past the top team.
1. Arkansas St.-The Red Wolves return 15 starters (8 on Defense) and have spaced out big games with Nebraska and Iowa. The good news is they will be rested and healed going into the meat of the SB schedule. Steve Roberts has done a great job here, with the Thunder and Lightning RB's, and the scrappy defense. Look for them to make a splash in New Orleans in December, but not before rolling through the Sun Belt in physical fashion.
2009 Prediction
9. Western Kentucky-The Hilltoppers maybe shouldn't have moved up. They went 2-10 last year, and return most of their players. The problem is breaking in a new QB, which if they didn't have to would mean they might push for 4 or 5 wins. WHile they may be a sleeping giant, they aren't world beaters yet. Let's see how they are in 2 years.
8. Florida International-The Panthers may be most remembered for an on field fight with Miami a few years ago, but Mario Cristobal wants to change that. For a team that finished 5-7 last year, that is a feat since they were winless a couple of years ago. This might be the best offense, but a new OC (Bill Legg from Purdue) and a handful of defensive starters returning make this a rebuilding year for the Golden Panthers
7. North Texas-Todd Dodge was the most accomplished High School coach in the state of Texas, which got him this job. But he hasn't done bad. The talent is starting to come in, and they are closer to competing with not only conference teams, but also some of the BCS schools. The defense will carry the load this year, but should improve from the 1-11 season of a year ago.
6. Middle Tennessee-The Blue Raiders will host an SEC team in Miss St this season, a first for them. WIth 10 starters on offense returning this could be a great year on that side ofthe ball, but 6 return on defense meaning a possible repeat of 5-7, but I predict 6-6. WIth imporved recruiting, and more potential TV time, this could be a program that leaps forward in 2010.
5. UL-Lafayette-The Ragin Cajuns have lost their top QB, RB and WR from last years team. So why this high? The top teams in this conference come to Lafayette. ULL is a great home team (Upset Texas A&M here a while back), and the fan support is back. Ricky Bustle has done a great job here, but this might be his toughest one yet. He has a strong defense, and RB depth which will help his team grind out close games in 2009.
4. UL-Monroe-Charlie Weatherbie made changes in his staff: Co-OC's in Vance Vince and his son Jonas Weatherbie. The new DC is Troy Reffett from UTEP. The good news-17 returning starters, 9 on defense. The top of the schedule is tough, Texas in Week 1 and Arizona St in week 3. But if they go 2-2 to start the season, this could be the surprise champ of this league. Keep an eye on Oct 24 when they play Kentucky which could be an upset.
3. Florida Atlantic-Howard Schnellenberger (Yes the man who built Miami, Fl and Louisville) is still coaching, and maybe doing his best work. The reason why they won't win the SB this year is defense-3 starters return. The offense lead by a healthy Rusty Smith at QB should roll some big numbers, but he hasn't played a full season due to injuries. If he stays healthy, look for his draft stock to rise, and FAU to go Bowling again.
2. Troy-The Trojans of the South have a lot in common with their namesakes on the West Coast-an exciting offense and a hard hitting defense. That is just about it, but this team did outgain Ohio St and had LSU on the ropes 31-3 last season. I would have them winning this league, but the defense will have a lot of questions with 5 returning starters. Their only big NC game is Florida on Sept 12, I don't count Bowling Green on Sept 3 as a major opponent (for Troy). With a very large and talented recruiting class, Troy could still win, but won't get past the top team.
1. Arkansas St.-The Red Wolves return 15 starters (8 on Defense) and have spaced out big games with Nebraska and Iowa. The good news is they will be rested and healed going into the meat of the SB schedule. Steve Roberts has done a great job here, with the Thunder and Lightning RB's, and the scrappy defense. Look for them to make a splash in New Orleans in December, but not before rolling through the Sun Belt in physical fashion.
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