Sunday, June 21, 2009

2009 Sun Belt Conference Preview

This is only the 9th season this conference has been playing football, believe it or not. Most of the members played in I-AA and moved up to be I-A. The good news is that they will be a little more visible on the national scene signing a TV deal with ESPN. The real money maker for the conference members is being placed on schedules of major programs like LSU, Florida, Ohio St, etc.


2009 Prediction


9. Western Kentucky-The Hilltoppers maybe shouldn't have moved up. They went 2-10 last year, and return most of their players. The problem is breaking in a new QB, which if they didn't have to would mean they might push for 4 or 5 wins. WHile they may be a sleeping giant, they aren't world beaters yet. Let's see how they are in 2 years.

8. Florida International-The Panthers may be most remembered for an on field fight with Miami a few years ago, but Mario Cristobal wants to change that. For a team that finished 5-7 last year, that is a feat since they were winless a couple of years ago. This might be the best offense, but a new OC (Bill Legg from Purdue) and a handful of defensive starters returning make this a rebuilding year for the Golden Panthers

7. North Texas-Todd Dodge was the most accomplished High School coach in the state of Texas, which got him this job. But he hasn't done bad. The talent is starting to come in, and they are closer to competing with not only conference teams, but also some of the BCS schools. The defense will carry the load this year, but should improve from the 1-11 season of a year ago.

6. Middle Tennessee-The Blue Raiders will host an SEC team in Miss St this season, a first for them. WIth 10 starters on offense returning this could be a great year on that side ofthe ball, but 6 return on defense meaning a possible repeat of 5-7, but I predict 6-6. WIth imporved recruiting, and more potential TV time, this could be a program that leaps forward in 2010.

5. UL-Lafayette-The Ragin Cajuns have lost their top QB, RB and WR from last years team. So why this high? The top teams in this conference come to Lafayette. ULL is a great home team (Upset Texas A&M here a while back), and the fan support is back. Ricky Bustle has done a great job here, but this might be his toughest one yet. He has a strong defense, and RB depth which will help his team grind out close games in 2009.

4. UL-Monroe-Charlie Weatherbie made changes in his staff: Co-OC's in Vance Vince and his son Jonas Weatherbie. The new DC is Troy Reffett from UTEP. The good news-17 returning starters, 9 on defense. The top of the schedule is tough, Texas in Week 1 and Arizona St in week 3. But if they go 2-2 to start the season, this could be the surprise champ of this league. Keep an eye on Oct 24 when they play Kentucky which could be an upset.

3. Florida Atlantic-Howard Schnellenberger (Yes the man who built Miami, Fl and Louisville) is still coaching, and maybe doing his best work. The reason why they won't win the SB this year is defense-3 starters return. The offense lead by a healthy Rusty Smith at QB should roll some big numbers, but he hasn't played a full season due to injuries. If he stays healthy, look for his draft stock to rise, and FAU to go Bowling again.

2. Troy-The Trojans of the South have a lot in common with their namesakes on the West Coast-an exciting offense and a hard hitting defense. That is just about it, but this team did outgain Ohio St and had LSU on the ropes 31-3 last season. I would have them winning this league, but the defense will have a lot of questions with 5 returning starters. Their only big NC game is Florida on Sept 12, I don't count Bowling Green on Sept 3 as a major opponent (for Troy). With a very large and talented recruiting class, Troy could still win, but won't get past the top team.

1. Arkansas St.-The Red Wolves return 15 starters (8 on Defense) and have spaced out big games with Nebraska and Iowa. The good news is they will be rested and healed going into the meat of the SB schedule. Steve Roberts has done a great job here, with the Thunder and Lightning RB's, and the scrappy defense. Look for them to make a splash in New Orleans in December, but not before rolling through the Sun Belt in physical fashion.

Sunday, April 5, 2009

College Review Coming Soon!

In the next few weeks I will analyze the new hires of College Football similar to the way I did the NFL. Right now the draft is my concern, so for now college is on the back burner.

The State of Minority Candidates

Whenever there is a coaching change, especially in football, attention is turned to who will replace him. Unfortunately some people, like for instance those who work for ESPN complain about the lack of black coaches getting hired. When given an opportunity to justify their claims, it is given that 85% of the teams in the NFL consist of black players, so naturally it is assumed that a black coach can more effectively reach these players better than a white head coach could. By this line of reasoning, if it is true, the only way for players in the NFL to be happy and successful is if the NFL had all 32 of its coaches to be black. That line of reasoning is showing that the personalities at ESPN favor Segregation. Now it is turning to the front office personnel and owners. I am going to offer ESPN a solution-start your own damn football league! You could make it to where only minorities can be the owner, GM and the head coach. All of your players could be black and all the assistants, referees and players are all black. Now how ridiculous does that sound? Very!

The Rooney Rule is in place where all NFL teams must interview a minority candidate for any head coaching opening. I can only recall a couple of coaches who have benefited from this rule recently-Jim Caldwell and Raheem Morris got interviews with other teams, and landed the head coaching gigs at their current teams. Do these men deserve their jobs? Yes-but not based on their skin color. Jim Caldwell laid the foundation at the NCAA as the head coach of Wake Forest. Caldwell laid the foundation for the current success of Wake. Raheem Morris was a defensive assistant who was elevated to Defensive Coordiantor for Tampa Bay. He interviewed with Denver so that they would be in compliance w/ the Rooney Rule and when Jon Gruden was fired, Morris was named the head coach. I like the hire, mostly because of what I have seen from him while on the Sidelines. He is young, intense and can motivate players very well. He is like his predecessor when he took over Oakland-young, never been a coordinator (In an NFL game), and intense. Now flip to Tony Dungy, now retired and Lovie Smith. Both men excelled as DC's in the NFL, and met up in the Super Bowl a few years ago. They have done excellent jobs with both their teams and deserve all the accolades they have received. Do I think they needed the Rooney Rule? No. These men got their jobs on their own and busted their butts to be the best in the game. There may have been a time when this type of rule was needed, but it no longer is. Interviewing minority candidates for the sake of being compliant with a rule is insulting. Some minority coaches have even refused to interview if they know the team has already made a hire. With most of the assistant coaches in the NFL classified racially as being minorities, one can assume that the majority of coaching hires in the next few years will be better for these candidates.

Some are proposing a similar rule for College Football. Again, this is a bad idea. If the coach is fired, and yes it has happened he can sue the University for being fired because he was black. This happened at UL-Lafayette when they fired Jerry Baldwin after 3 years, and hired a white head coach to replace him. Baldwin, a member of the Fellowship of Christian Athletes and a devoutly religious man filed a suit against the University claiming he was fired because he was black. It probably had more to do with the 8-25 record he compiled in his 3 years as head coach than his race did, but a judge did see it his way and he was rewarded an undisclosed sum of money, but later reports said it was about $3 million. That alone would alarm an NCAA School President and AD from hiring a minority candidate, or at the very least very apprehensive. If a hire is made in the SEC, Big 10, Pac 10, or other big BCS Conference they are demeaned for not hiring a black candidate, but nobody cares if the SWAC and MEAC, both conferences that are represented by historically black colleges, aren't demeaned for not hiring a white head coach. This where I believe the double standard exists in the big sports media.

Everyone soured on Rush Limbaugh when he made comments about Donovan McNabb being propped up by the media because they wanted a black quarterback to succeed. When he criticized his play, he was fired from ESPN. At the time, McNabb's stats were average; he used that publicity to reinvigorate his career and led the Eagles to the Super Bowl the next season. But Rush was dead on right with his analysis at the time. Rex Grossman was the flip side story here, and criticism of him remained even as he helped the Bears to a Super Bowl, only to lose partially because of his play. If Grossman had been black, I could bet you his criticism never would have been so high. The point that Rush wanted to prove is that it is okay to criticize a player if they are not doing so well, regardless of what the color of the player's skin is. From where I stand it still is.

"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character." This quote by Dr. Martin Luther King is my favorite quote from him in his "I Have A Dream" speech. Unfortunately we live in an elitist race obsessed society fueled by our media. It has spilled over into sports, and the NFL and College Football in particular. When it comes to coaching, it shouldn't matter if the coach is white, black or Hispanic. A forgotten footnote in Football is that Tony Dungy was not the first minority coach to win a Super Bowl, it was Tom Flores of the Raiders. The truth is the state of minority candidates is a lot better now than it was 20 years ago, but rules do not need to be made to spur them on. They should not be judged solely on their skin color, but the content of their character. And the only things that fans will care about is if their team won on Saturday or Sunday. Winning is colorblind, as the searches for head coaches should be.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

College Football Coming Soon!

The lazy days of summer bring a new season of college football! I hope to get some news posted here soon. I'll review the new coaches hired and offer some tidbits on my take of college football.

New NFL Coaches

Every year there are hires and fires in the NFL, or a legendary coach steps down. So how will they fare? Lets take a look at them.

Detroit-Jim Schwartz. If a coach cracks a joke in his debut press conference he is either a John McKay type clone, or another long line of Detroit failures. The Lions seem to be aggressive, adding some help in LB Julian Peterson. There is a lot of pressure to see how Schwartz can handle the draft. Me? I would go for the OT. Once you build that line, everything should fall into place. The Roy Williams trade with Dallas gives them extra picks. As for the hire, the last time Detroit had success was bringing in a proven head coach in Bobby Ross. Matt Millen is gone as GM, so the front office should be a bit more organized, but a strong GM like a Parcells or Polian type is needed to get things right here. I give them a C on the hire, but Schwartz needs 3 drafts to fix this mess.

St Louis-Steve Spagnuolo. Better known as the man whose defense cost the Pats a perfect season, the Disciple of Jim Johnson gets a head gig a year later than expected. The good news, his defense isn't too bad. The bad news is the offense has literally nothing. The Rams have once again hired a hot named coordinator for their head gig, but I think Spag's youth and enthusiasm can spread to a young team. While not as dire as Detroit, he needs 2 good drafts. I give them a B.

Kansas City-Todd Haley. The Chiefs have a new GM in Scott Pioli who helped turn the Patriots into a force of nature. He has reached out to Todd Haley, the OC for the Cardinals who has been responsible for their huge offensive turnaround last year. The bad news is Haley doesn't have Larry Fitzgerald here. But they do have Matt Cassell, who might be the answer at QB. Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez have uncertain futures, but Dwayne Bowe is a consistent WR and should help in the passing game. The defense is young and solid, but haven't had an impact player since the late and always great Derrick Thomas. GM hire is an A, Haley gets a B minus.

Seattle-Jim Mora, Jr. Mike Holmgren is gone, and taking his place is an experienced head coach. Jim Mora Jr has more playoff wins than his father, but is not inheriting the same type of team he did in Atlanta. He might be able to get the right weapons, but this is a rebuilding job at best. The good thing is the NFC West is weak, so a bad record could get you into the playoffs. The bad thing is the top team went to the Super Bowl. I'm not sure this is the right fit, but Mora is where he wants to be in the state of Washington, just not as the head coach of the Huskies. I have to give them a D. An outside coach could do a lot better here than an insider.

Oakland-Tom Cable. The problem isn't the head coach in Oakland, it's Al Davis. I thought that until Lane Kiffen opened his mouth at Tennessee. Tom Cable had the Raiders finish strong under the interim tag, but can he roll that over to 2009? In JaMarcus Russell, he has the QB with the strongest arm in the NFL; but he has been inconsistent. The offense, except the line looks good but the Raiders need defensive help more in this draft. The Raiders need Davis to stay out of the way, and transition to a strong front office man. I give the hire an F because I think Cable won't last more than 2 years. Plus nobody really wanted the job.

San Francisco-Mike Singletary. When Mike Singletary played for the Bears, he had his eyes wide open, and could scan the field and take out whoever had the ball. There is a QB competition b/t Shaun Hill and possible bust Alex Smith, but from all accounts it is going well. The transition to a smash mouth offense fits the personality of the coach, but maybe not the team personnel. The defense looks to be in good hands, and the future looks bright. But the only knock is history-great players do not always make good head coaches. But things look good so far. I give the 49ers an A for the retention of last years interim coach.

NY Jets-Rex Ryan. Rex Ryan brings a strong pedigree of defensive coaching to his first gig as head coach. His father Buddy helped the Bears go 15-1 and dominate Super Bowl XX, but failed as a head man in Philly and Arizona. After Mangini and Favre last year, the Jets should have made the playoffs, but lets be realistic, this was a 9-7 team last year. It seems the offense will remain the same, but a QB has to be found, and I doubt the draft will help there, unless Sanchez is still on the board. In Baltimore, Rex Ryan had one of the best defensive units ever assembled. In the Jets, well, they aren't the Ravens. But all things considered, I give them a C, this is another Mangini.

Cleveland-Eric Mangini. He had Brett Favre's drama last year, so welcome to the Derrick Anderson and Brady Quin fiasco. Mangini may have deserved to be fired from the Jets, but this might be a better fit. The athletes are better, younger and can be molded into what he wants them to be. Since the Browns returned to the NFL they never brought in an experienced NFL head coach, and that is also a plus. Once hte QB issue is resolved, and the defense can be fine tuned, this could be a good unit. But remember this is the same system used by Romeo Crennel and the same pedigree. Oh boy. B minus.

Tampa Bay-Raheem Morris. Okay, here is the story of an assistant who becomes a coordinator, is interviewed by a team only to fulfill the Rooney Rule, and then is made the head coach after his boss is fired. Raheem Morris is that man, but is he the right fit? Everything is against him: never been a head coach on any level, no coordinator experience, etc. That's why he may just be the right man for the job. His predecessor had success in Oakland before jumping ship to Tampa. The Bucs are releasing long time older players, and are experiencing a youth movement. This youth movement may take a while, but this is undoubtedly the most intriguing off season hire in the NFL. The Bucs get a B.

Denver-Josh McDaniels. Like Spag's, Josh McDaniels is someone who could have been a head man in 2008. But this looks like a big mess. Turmoil and uncertainty have gripped the locker room (at least on the surface). Say what you will about all the great things Mike Shannahan did at Denver, they were only a .500 team the last few years. I question this hire because Denver could have used Spag's more than this guy. The Broncos had problems defensively, and needed that mind set. Guess who gets the F?

Indianapolis-Jim Caldwell. Tony Dungy hand picked this man to replace him. And with good reason. The success at Wake Forest can be traced to Jim Caldwell. His no nonsense and no excuses approach isn't a 180, and his laid back attitude makes him the right fit. Being Peyton Manning's position coach made his previouis Colts job easy, but to fill in for Tony Dungy, and make a seamless transition is tougher. But they have the right guy to do it. His offensive philosophy is different from the conservative Dungy, just look at his records Wake put up in his tenure. This is the only A plus given out here.

Back in the Saddle-2009 NFL Draft Needs

After a personally terrible 2008, I am back in the game for 2009. The NFL Draft is 4 weeks away, and I am working overtime to get this done. I am going to be posting what I see as the top needs for all 32 teams both offensively and defensively. I was going to go division by division, but instead will go in Draft Order.

1. Detroit-Everything. Seriously. 0-16 means none of your players are any good. Just buy a new team.

2. St Louis-Need a WR on offense, O-line also a need. Defense needs a DT, with LB a big concern.

3. Kansas City-O-Line is the big concern, with RB a close 2nd. Defense needs a LB and Secondary help

4. Seattle-WR or QB on offense, O-line depth. Defense needs D-line help

5. Cleveland-O-line is tops, on defense LB and secondary help

6. Cincinnati-WR and O-line; Defense needs everything.

7. Oakland-O-line on offense; Defense, see above.

8. Jacksonville-O-line and WR; LB on defense

9. Green Bay-RB on offense; defense look to the Secondary

10. San Francisco-O-line and WR; DL and Secondary

11. Buffalo-O-line and RB; Defense needs secondary help

12. Denver-Offense in good shape, but need Line depth; Defense needs everything

13. Washington-WR and more Hogs needed; Defense needs DL

14. New Orleans-RB and O-line; Defense needs LB and Safety

15. Houston-TE and RB; Secondary on the defense

16. San Diego-RB on offense; LB on defense

17. NY Jets-QB and WR; LB and CB

18. Chicago-QB and RB; DL and Secondary

19. Tampa Bay-QB and WR; DL and CB

20. Dallas-WR and O-line; DL and CB

21. Philadelphia-RB and WR; LB

22. Minnesota-WR and TE; Secondary and people who can cover on Special Teams

23. New England-O-line and LB

24. Atlanta-O-line and WR; DL and CB

25. Miami-WR and RB; LB and CB

26. Baltimore-WR and RB; Secondary

27. Indianapolis-O-line and WR; Secondary

28. Carolina-O-line and RB; DE and LB

29. NY Giants-O-line and WR; LB and Safety

30. Tennessee-WR and TE; LB and CB

31. Arizona-O-line and RB; LB and CB

32. Pittsburgh-O-line and RB; DL and Secondary

Sunday, August 3, 2008

2008 NFL Preview

I am not going as detaliled as I would like, so here it goes, the complete reader's digest version of my predictions, plus some commentary at the end, and away we go!

* Denotes playoff birth


AFC North

1. Steelers* (Bye)
2. Browns*
3. Bengals
4. Ravens


The Steelers may be the next AFC dynasty, with great talent on offense. The Browns surge is no fluke, but the Bengals are a mess and the Ravens are at least 2 years away from being any good.


AFC West

1. Chargers*
2. Broncos
3. Raiders
4. Chiefs

The Chargers are still the best, and you guys will love rookie RB Jacob Hester. The Broncos are not as good as thought, but better than the Raiders who have a weak defense, and the Chiefs who have a new team.

AFC East

1. Patriots* (Bye)
2. Bills
3. Jets
4. Dolphins

We know how good New England is, but the Bills are the Browns of 2007. The Jets will still struggle, and the Dolphins are in a tailspin, but with Parcells they have a brighter future.

AFC South

1. Jaguars*
2. Colts*
3. Texans
4. Titans

Jacksonville has the better team this year, as the Colts are starting to age, and noticeably at that. Houston could have a breakout year, but the Titans are taking a big step back.



NFC North

1. Packers*
2. Bears*
3. Vikings
4. Lions

With or without Brett Favre, the Packers are still the best. The Bears defense carries them yet again. The Lions just suck, and the Vikings need a QB, and Tavaris Jackson is not it, neither is Gus Frerotte.

NFC West

1. Seahawks*
2. Cardinals
3. 49ers
4. Rams

Mike Holmgren goes out on top once again, but the Cards should really do well-if Edge doesn't get hurt (no RB depth). The 49ers Alex Smith is a bust-but Mike Martz has to be a big coup as the OC. The Rams are terrible. End of story.


NFC East

1. Giants* (Bye)
2. Eagles*
3. Cowboys
4. Redskins

Eli Manning continues to make strides, and TE Jeremy Shockey is no longer a locker room distraction. The Eagles have a chip on their shoulder from a year ago. The Cowboys are overrated, and Jim Zorn has help in Jason Taylor on defense, and on the bright side, Jason Campbell can be a good NFL QB.

NFC South

1. Saints* (Bye)
2. Panthers
3. Buccaneers
4. Falcons

The Saints are marching, and want to show last year was a fluke. The Panthers are also as determined, but not as talented as the Saints. The Bucs are old, and the Falcons are now an expansion franchise who will be good in 3 years.